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Years of war, rise in terrorism led to the current Israel-Hamas conflict, experts say_我的网站
A | The origin of the bloody conflict happening in Gaza and Israel is complicated given the long, disputed history of the region, according to experts who have spent decades studying the region.As the attacks continue in both countries, the experts fear that any attempts at truly achieving peace between the Palestinians and Israelis may have been pushed back heavily.Susannah Heschel, the chair of the Jewish Studies Program at Dartmouth University, who has written several books about this region, told ABC News that the conflicts run deep and as far back as the Middle Ages, but specifically, the most modern clashes have stemmed from the fallout of the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.
On ABC News Live at 8:30 pm on Thursday, Oct. 12, ABC News' James Longman, Matt Gutman and Ian Pannell look at the horrendous toll from Hamas' massacre, the Israelis and Palestinians caught in the middle and what comes next.
The war, known in Israel as the Six-Day War, ended with Israel gaining control of several territories, including the Gaza Strip, and that has led to the violence and political fallout that has befallen the area currently, Heschel, the school's Eli M. Black Distinguished Professor of Jewish Studies, said."What we are seeing today is the consequence of that war, or how the various parties to that war …responded to the end," she told ABC News.Following its battles with Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan, Israel touted its swift victory and new territory, which included lands with long historical significance to Israeli Jews, Heschel, who is teaching a course on the war this semester, said.At the same time, Israel had to deal with an influx of Arabs who now lived under its control, and the retaliation from the neighboring countries who still disputed Israel's claims over the land, she said."The question is, was that victory in fact in some way not a victory? Because the consequence of it was an enormous headache for Israel," Heschel said.Israel has been the target of several military excursions by the nations in that war, particularly Egypt, to try and regain some of that land including during the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, known in Israel as the Yom Kippur War. Egypt would eventually regain the Sinai Peninsula in 1982, following an agreement it signed with Israel three years prior.Gaza, however, remained under Israeli control and tensions continued to flare between Palestinians and Israelis who had begun constructing settlements in the region.The tensions came to a turning point in 1987 during the First Intifada, or "uprising," when Palestinians started to violently rebel against Israeli forces and civilians. It was during this time that Hamas emerged and began to stage violent strikes against Israeli forces.Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security adviser in Israel and long-time senior fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School, told ABC News that Hamas' stance is simply to "wipe Israel off the map," and it has suppressed anyone within the Palestinian community who doesn't adhere to that."It's not a question of recognition," he said.By the time the Intifada ended in the early 90s, over 1,000 people had been killed, and Gaza was left in ruin from the fighting.Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization would eventually agree to the Oslo Accords in 1993 which granted Palestinians the right to self-government.Heschel said the treaty was a good start but leaders on both sides could have done more to decrease the tensions and violence.Freilich said that the Palestinian Authority, which governed Gaza and continues to govern the West Bank, did try to crack down on terrorism alongside the Israeli government, but it was not always successful and groups like Hamas continued to incite and inflict violence on Israel.In 2000, a Second Intifada began, and hundreds more were hurt and killed in the violent protests. Five years later, the Israeli government voted to withdraw from Gaza and then-Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon expelled 9,480 Jewish settlers from 21 settlements from the region."That withdrawal of the Jewish settlements left some Israeli Jews with the resentment that inflames them to this day," Heschel said.A 2006 election where Hamas became Gaza's leading party has led to increased violence, and a decline in economic resources for its people, as Israel and other nations cut off support. Israel and Egypt imposed a blockade on the coastal strip, which continues to this day."It's unfortunate that Hamas came into power. It's not supported by the majority of the people," Heschel said.Hamas, which contends it is resisting Israel’s oppression of Palestinians, continued to attack Israel in the subsequent years with rockets, kidnappings and other violence leading to major military action by Israel in 2008, 2012, and 2014."It's part of a long-term campaign to repeatedly weaken Israel with conflict after conflict," Freilich said.Freilich added that the recent turmoil within the Israeli government, from its multiple elections in the last six years to the recent turmoil over the changes to its judicial changes, have left Israeli leaders fractured."Their attention was diverted…and we saw the results on Saturday," he said.Last week's attack by Hamas that has killed over 900 Israeli citizens and wounded over 2,300 was unprecedented and puts the region in "uncharted territory," Heschel said.This is the first time in 50 years that civilians were attacked on Israeli soil and it will only lead to more devastation and destruction for both sides, according to the professor."What Hamas did was not to the benefit of the people of Gaza," Heschel said. "Everyone knows, anybody knows and Hamas certainly knew, that in attacking Israel and inflicting so much destruction and murder on Israeli civilians that there would be retaliation."Heschel and Freilich said that it is impossible to determine the long-term ramifications of Hamas' attack and Israel's retaliation, but said that both sides will be living in fear as the violence escalates."To even think that Israel would think at this point that Israel would include a peace process with [Hamas] is totally unrealistic," Freilich said.Even though emotions are high and there is still violence likely to continue for the foreseeable future, Heschel, insisted that Israeli and Palestinian leaders needed to push back against Hamas and its influence and really take time to work out the decades-festering issue over the land."Let's…try to think in clear terms about what we can do for the future so that things can get better," she said. "What's the strategy? Not the strategy for the moment but the strategy for 10, 20, 30 years from now. How can we get there?"。 随着高水平对外开放深入推进，中国企业海外布局已从产品出口和项目投资，逐步扩展到资源权益、生产设施、研发平台、知识产权、数据系统、品牌渠道和物流网络建设等多种形态。
B | 海外资产安全的内涵也随之发生变化。过去，海外投资安全主要关注东道国政治稳定、项目可持续经营以及人员和财产保护等。当前，在全球产业链重构、产业政策竞争加剧和国际经贸规则分化的背景下，海外项目即使经营正常，也可能由于关键产能过度集中或者因东道国规则调整受到不同程度的冲击。 联合国贸发会议指出，地缘政治分化、贸易碎片化和产业政策竞争正在重塑全球投资流向。近期，部分国家的政策调整具有警示意义。这提示我们：即使企业已经形成规模、成本和产业配套优势，只要资源获取、加工和关键中间品产能高度依赖同一东道国，其政策变化仍可能同时波及多个项目，并沿上下游产业链传导。
C | 不仅如此，中国企业海外资产布局中的三类结构性风险值得关注。因此，海外资产安全保障不能止于维持单个项目的持续经营，还应着眼于有效提升整个资产网络的韧性。 中国企业全球资产布局面临三类结构性风险 一是关键产业链空间集中所带来的系统性风险。产业集聚可以降低成本、共享基础设施共享和上下游协同。
D | 但当资源获取、生产加工、物流运输和关键中间品等功能持续集中于少数国家、地区或制度体系集中时，效率优势也可能会转化为结构性脆弱。一旦东道国调整政策，影响的不只是个别企业，而是多个相互关联的生产环节，冲击还会沿供应链传导至其他海外节点乃至国内产业。企业依据市场条件作出的区位选择本身是理性的。但当大量企业作出相似选择，产业层面就可能形成短期内难以替代的功能集中。判断海外布局是否安全，不能只看资产分布于多少个国家，还要看不可替代的资源、技术、加工和市场功能是否集中在少数节点。 二是海外投资深度嵌入所带来的战略回旋空间收窄风险。深度嵌入东道国有助于企业降低成本、建立合作关系并形成产业优势，但嵌入越深，调整区位和重新配置资产的成本可能越高。矿山、工业园、港口和能源设施等重资产项目，投资规模大、建设周期长，并与特定资源、基础设施和监管体系紧密相连。项目建成后，设备迁移、原料替换和产能转移都会受到很强的约束。
E | 如果企业在投资时只考虑如何进入，而没有预先考虑如何调整、替代和退出，已经形成的海外资产就可能由企业能力的载体转化为限制战略选择的约束。其影响不再局限于单个项目经营，而可能削弱我国对海外重要资产的保护、控制和再配置能力，压缩应对资源、产业和国际环境变化的战略空间。 三是海外资产链高度关联所带来的制度风险跨境传导风险。中国企业的海外生产基地可能使用第三国技术和设备，通过国际金融中心融资，由跨国物流网络运输，最终面向多个市场销售。股权、技术、资金、数据、供应链和市场等联系，把地理上分散的资产连接成一个跨国网络。
F | 此时，一国贸易、投资、技术、数据或市场准入规则变化，可能沿企业控制关系和产业联系传导到其他国家。企业将产能转移至新的国家，可以分散地理风险，却未必能同步实现制度风险的分散。
G | 在东道国合法经营，也不意味着其技术来源、融资渠道和产品市场不受其他法域规则影响。
H | 海外资产联系越广、结构越复杂，局部制度冲击越可能演化为资产网络的联动风险。 多措并举，着力提高海外资产网络韧性 应对上述三类风险，需要在扩大高水平对外开放的同时，提高中国企业海外资产的配置质量和动态调整能力。
I | 一是建立海外资产网络风险识别机制。除掌握投资规模、项目数量和经营收益之外，还要摸清资源、生产、研发、物流、数据、融资和市场等关键功能的全球分布及相互依赖关系。
J | 围绕重点产业开展压力测试，模拟单一国家政策调整、关键园区停产、物流通道中断、主要市场准入收紧等情景，评估资产网络的持续运营能力。 二是把资产可调整性纳入海外投资决策前端。对建设周期长、区位专用性强的项目，在投资阶段同步评估资产集中度、设备可迁移性、供应替代性和退出成本，推广分阶段投资、模块化建设、多来源供应和备用物流安排。政策性金融和保险支持也应把项目的调整、替代和退出能力作为重要考量，防止短期成本优势固化为长期资产锁定。 三是健全制度风险跨境传导预警机制。
K | 海外投资风险评估既要分析东道国营商环境，也要关注技术来源地、融资结算地、数据存储地和产品销售地的相关规则，识别各类资产联系及其风险传导路径。应整合驻外机构、行业部门、金融保险机构和专业服务机构的信息，形成重点行业规则数据库、风险传导图谱和情景预案。 四是构建功能互补的全球资产组合。多元化布局不应是同类项目的简单分散，而应由不同节点分别承担核心生产、区域市场、弹性增产、技术研发和应急储备等功能。企业还应扩大本地就业，培育当地供应商，加强人才培训和环境治理，使海外项目更好融入东道国经济社会，为资产持续运营夯实社会基础。 中国企业更好走向世界，既要有进入全球市场、配置全球资源的能力，也要有随国际环境变化及时调整，保护资产、维持经营和重新配置资源的能力。为此，海外资产安全保障应从单个项目延伸到资产网络，在开放中增强韧性，在发展中筑牢安全屏障。这是推动统筹高水平开放和高水平安全的重要着力点。（张思 刘梦 汪寿阳 作者单位：中国科学院大学经济与管理学院）。
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